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Cost of wicket ?
by: Tony Tue May 05, 2015 @ 5:41 am

Hello , I would like to research on the term " cost of wicket " example scenario : KKR vs SRH 4/5/2015 IPL 08 KKR batting first match starting odds KKR 1.8 SRH 2.2 after six overs KKR 1.55 SRH 3.25 wicket fell in 7th over new odds KKR 1.75 SRH 2.5 In the above scenario SRH odds Fluctuated around 70P so, There is 70% profit scenario . Now , How Do we Lay 2.50 odds exactly so that our bet executes early with best price . how can we calculate odd movement when a wicket falls according to scenario ? . can we create a mathematical formula ? Guys share Your Toughts

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Re: Cost of wicket ?
by: Munna Bhai Tue May 05, 2015 @ 6:20 am

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Cost of wicket ?
by: Ram Bilas Tue May 05, 2015 @ 6:07 pm
I guess they flactuate the odds looking at there customers how keen there customers are in taking which team they more or less keep that team a lil fav.. look at today's match.. after 4th wicket the odds came like 47 49 dd. Bt by 7th ovr odds came like 90 92 dd.. when they even didnt scored runs...
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Re: Cost of wicket
by: Lucknowi-Nawab Wed May 06, 2015 @ 12:06 am
Same query holds true for a Six in IPL matches..... We know that Odds fluctuate with every Six, and little bit, on each 4 as well.... and depends on the situation of the match, as a 6 at crunch situation will move the odds more, as compared to a 6 in the first over.... But then, who decides the odds after each Wicket/ Six? Is it the punters pre-laid bets on both Back-Lay sides that automatically decide the odds? Or is it some mathematical calculation sitting on Betfair exchange that does the calculations to determine what the odds should be after each ball is bowled?
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Re: Cost of wicket
by: Munna Bhai Thu May 07, 2015 @ 11:01 am

Lucknowi-Nawab wrote on 2015-05-06 02:06:06

but then, who decides the odds after each Wicket/ Six? Is it the punters pre-laid bets on both Back-Lay sides that automatically decide the odds? Or is it some mathematical calculation sitting on Betfair exchange that does the calculations to determine what the odds should be after each ball is bowled?

This is mystery or not a mystery depending on how you look at the odds calculation on BF. Odds are not calculated by computers, it is impossible. A computer has not brain and doesn't understand Cricket. Odds are always set by humans by all bookies and this is also trye on BF. One might think that BF is betting exchange so odds must be calculated by computers using an algorigthm but that is nonsense. 

Odds are also not determined by punters betting against each other either. If punters have to decide odds then they will fuck entire BF exchange in matter of nanoseconds. 

There are bumch of people called Traders who set the odds and monitor it constantly. 

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Re: Cost of wicket
by: Ram Bilas Thu May 07, 2015 @ 5:36 pm
There might surely be some calculation.. which comes out on every four six nd wicket...cause the betfair dose only matters with six four or wicket..it dosent see whoes wicket it is...if it was a punter it would have definately caught that point..
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Re: Cost of wicket
by: Lucknowi-Nawab Thu May 07, 2015 @ 10:30 pm

Ram Bilas wrote on 2015-05-07 19:36:15

There might surely be some calculation.. which comes out on every four six nd wicket...cause the betfair dose only matters with six four or wicket..it dosent see whoes wicket it is...if it was a punter it would have definately caught that point..

Ram Bilas bhai, the Batsman does matter ..... If you note carefully...... For example: If a key batsman like Gayle, McCullum, Smith gets out at a time when he is expected to blast or stabilise the innings, the odds come down sharply for bowling team.... as compared to a lower order batsman.... Also, if you note, it depends a lot at what stage of the game wicket falls.... like whether crucial stage or not...
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